Cases in East Sussex starting to decrease
Trends in county about a week behind national trends
Wealden cases fluctuating and district has second highest rate behind Rother
Working age people most likely to be infected in Wealden
Most cases in 40-49 age group in Wealden with more women infected than men
This story gives the latest figures for Uckfield, surrounding communities, the figures for Wealden and nearby districts, plus commentary from the county’s public health team on the position in Wealden and in East Sussex as a whole.
Here are the latest figures for Uckfield and surrounding communities
Uckfield Town and North: Six cases in the seven days to December 1 – the figure was 13 when we reported a week ago.
The seven-day rolling rate is 69.4 per 100,000 people – 150.4 per 100,000 population when we last reported.
Uckfield South (New Town and Ridgewood): Three cases in the seven days to December 1 – the figure was fewer than three cases when we reported a week ago – official data does not show the exact figure when cases numbers are either one or two to protect individuals’ identities. The seven-day rolling rate is 46.4 per 100,000 population.
- The boundary between the two Uckfield areas is roughly the River Uck.
Buxted, Framfield and Rotherfield (includes High Hurstwood, Blackboys and Waldron): Fourteen cases in the seven days to December 1 – the figure was 11 when we reported a week ago.
The seven-day rolling rate is 166.6 per 100,000 people – 130.9 per 100,000 people when we last reported.
The current rate is above the England average.
Five Ash Down, Horsted and Chiddingly (includes Maresfield, Piltdown, Isfield, Halland, East Hoathly and Laughton): Three cases in the seven days to December 1– the figure was five when we reported a week ago.
The seven-day rolling rate is 42.8 per 100,000 people – 71.3 per 100,000 people last time we reported.
Chelwood and Nutley (includes Fletching): Three cases in the seven days to December 1 – the figure was four when we reported a week ago.
The seven-day rolling rate is 55.0 per 100,000 people – 73.4 per 100,000 people when we last reported.
The current England rate is 149.5 cases per 100,000 people.
The community groupings for the Uckfield area are those used for national statistical purposes and are areas with around on average 7,200 population.
Seven–day rates are expressed per 100,000 population and are calculated by dividing the seven day count by the area population and multiplying by 100,000. It is the typical way in which data is presented so that like can be compared with like.
The seven-day rolling average smooths out the daily fluctuations to help identify overall trends.
Figures up to yesterday (December 6) show the number of Covid-19 infections in Wealden has probably plateaued.
There were 197 lab-confirmed cases of the Coronavirus in the district in the seven days to yesterday – up nine on the previous week.
The current rate per 100,000 population in Wealden is 140.7 per 100,000 resident population – 140.6 when we reported a week ago.
When looking at the national picture, Wealden is 51st, on a list of 380 local councils (47th last week) – when No 1 is the council area with the fewest cases per 100,000 population since the pandemic began.
New Covid cases in surrounding council areas:
- Brighton and Hove: 180 – a rate of 58.8 per 100,000 population
- Eastbourne borough: 72 – a rate of 62.7 per 100,000 population
- Hastings borough: 162 – a rate of 91.7 per 100,000 population
- Lewes district: 48 – a rate of 62.9 per 100,000 population
- Mid Sussex: 137 – a rate of 88.1 per 100,000 population
- Rother: 159 – a rate of 131.1 per 100,000 population
- Tunbridge Wells district: 201 – a rate of 128.0 per 100,000 population
East Sussex Public Health commentary on the Wealden figures, as at December 3.
It said: “Cases reduced from the first wave to low levels and a reducing trend between June and August.
“The cases in Wealden showed a marked and stable increase throughout October before a further increase throughout November.”
There was a spike one day mid-month but this seems to have been an isolated day.
However, Wealden is still experiencing fluctuations and has the second highest rate in the county, just behind Rother.
On the same day it also gave an East Sussex perspective
“The weekly rate in East Sussex has started to decrease from 134 to 95 per 100,000 people.
“Local trends appear to be running around a week or so behind the national trends.
“We continue to see our highest number of cases in working age adults.
“We are not out of the woods. We must encourage each other to continue our efforts if we are to see a continued downward trend.
“This is so important during a festive season which is usually about celebrating with friends and family.
“Our neighbour Kent is in Tier 3, the national guidance asks people to only travel to Tier 3 areas for work or education, so please bear this in mind when planning your travel,” the public health department said.
Covid-19 infections spread into East Sussex
East Sussex Public Health said:
“The number of infections rose significantly across the county in the weeks before and during the lockdown (5/11/20 to 2/12/20); showing spread from higher incidence areas into our lower incidence and lower immunity population.
Effect of lockdown
“Whilst this was significant, the lockdown did seem to curtail the growth in cases.
“Had we had a few additional weeks prior to lockdown, East Sussex could have escalated into very high rates.
“Lockdown has brought down our cases but our downturn is running at least one week behind the England downturn.”
Two phased second wave
East Sussex Public Health added:
“When looking at all cases throughout the pandemic, East Sussex has experienced lower levels of total confirmed cases than the national average, and this is the case for each of the five district and borough councils within the county.
“Although East Sussex has consistently had a weekly rate much lower than the national average, the second wave which began in September has seen two contrasting phases.
“The first phase was characterised by a sharp national increase and a much shallower increase in East Sussex.
“However, in November we have seen a different trend with the rate nationally reversing whilst East Sussex continued to increase at a steeper rate than previously.
“In the last week we have finally seen rates start to reduce, around a week or so behind the national trend.”
The R Number
The latest R number for the healthcare region of South East is estimated at 0.9 to 1.1 with a daily infection growth rate range of -2% to +1% as of December 4.