Numbers of new Covid-19 infections in Uckfield, surrounding villages and across Wealden have generally started to drop.
The pace of decline is much slower than the rapid rise when the new variant, first seen in the South East, took hold.
It also looks as if it could be a “bumpy” path with little spikes now and then; although the trend is downwards.
Infections remains high
Those “bumps in the path” can be seen particular in the latest seven-day figures for two communities: Uckfield Town and North and the Buxted/Framfield area.
It is important to state that infections are down but remain high.
East Sussex Public Health believes cases per day “may finally have passed their peak” in Wealden.
7,000 recorded cases since pandemic began
Cases of the Coronavirus in Wealden in the last seven days totalled 635 – there were 934 in the previous seven-day period.
The total number of infections now stands at 7,000 since the pandemic began, although many cases in the first wave were not registered because of limited testing.
The current rate of infection per 100,000 population in Wealden is 471.9 per 100,000 people which is above the England rate of 437.8 per 100,000 people.
New Covid cases in surrounding council areas in the last seven days:
- Brighton and Hove: 968 with a rate of 396.0 per 100,000 population
- Eastbourne borough: 715 with a rate of 796.2 per 100,000 population
- Hastings borough: 394 with a rate of 425.2 per 100,000 population
- Lewes district: 431 with a rate of 432.9 per 100,000 population
- Mid Sussex: 446 with a rate of 341.0 per 100,000 population
- Rother: 313 with a rate of 359.1 per 100,000 population
- Tunbridge Wells district: 352 with a rate of 334.4 per 100,000 population
The rate per 100,000 people is the key figure.
The above data is up to yesterday (January 14) afternoon. The breakdown of the seven-day rolling rate for the Uckfield district (below) is up to January 19. The village groupings have similar size populations.
Uckfield Town and North: 36 cases in the seven days to January 19 – the figure was 35 a week ago.
The seven-day rolling rate is 416.6 per 100,000 population – 405.0 per 100,000 population a week ago.
Uckfield South (New Town and Ridgewood): 17 cases in the seven days to January 19 – the figure was 30 a week ago.
The seven-day rolling rate is 262.9 per 100,000 people – 464.0 per 100,000 a week ago.
- The boundary between the two Uckfield areas is roughly the River Uck.
Buxted, Framfield and Rotherfield (includes High Hurstwood, Blackboys, Hadlow Down and Waldron): 40 cases in the seven days to January 19 – the figure was 35 a week ago.
The seven-day rolling rate is 475.9 per 100,000 people – 416.4 per 100,000 people a week ago.
Five Ash Down, Horsted and Chiddingly (includes Maresfield, Piltdown, Isfield, Halland, East Hoathly and Laughton): 25 cases in the seven days to January 19 – the figure was 31 a week ago.
The seven-day rolling rate is 356.3 per 100,000 people – 441.8 per 100,000 a week ago.
Chelwood and Nutley (includes Fletching): Nine cases in the seven days to January 19 – the figure was 18 a week ago.
The seven-day rolling rate is 165.1 per 100,000 people – 330.2 per 100,000 people a week ago.
Update from East Sussex Public Health, as at Thursday, January 21.
- The rates in East Sussex have finally started to decrease.
- Although we appear to have passed the peak of cases in East Sussex, it is concerning that the rate in Eastbourne is not yet declining as fast as the rest of the county.
- The declaration of a major incident remains across Sussex. Hospitals are continuing to experience substantial pressures due to demand on beds from the increased number of Covid-19 cases now being higher than it was in April during the first peak.
Darrell Gale, Director of Public Health, said:
“Adherence to the national lockdown seems to be having an impact on Covid rates and is starting to reverse the trend of December and early January, so I thank everyone for their efforts.
“By all following the stay at home guidance we can get East Sussex back to the low rates we previously experienced.”
What is the situation with hospitals where Uckfield area patients tend to go?
Covid-19 hospital data is to January 17
Brighton and Sussex University Hospitals NHS Trust NHS Trust (Royal Sussex County in Brighton and the Princess Royal at Haywards Heath)
161 patients admitted in the last seven days – down 37 (-18.7%) on the previous seven day period. There are 44 people on ventilation (52 when we last reported). In all, there are 253 Covid patients.
East Sussex Healthcare (DGH at Eastbourne and Conquest at Hastings)
229 patients admitted in the last seven days – down 48 (-17.3%) on the previous seven day period. There are 24 people on ventilation (23 when we last reported). In all, there are 395 Covid patients.
Maidstone and Tunbridge Wells NHS Trust (Tunbridge Wells and Maidstone)
179 patients admitted in the last seven days – down 15 (-7.7% on the previous seven day period). There are 21 people on ventilation (23 when we last reported). In all, there are 251 Covid patients.
- The R rate for the South East healthcare region continues to decline and is estimated at 0.7 to 1.0 (as of January 22) – 1 to 1.2 when we reported a week ago.
- The community groupings for the Uckfield area are those used for national statistical purposes and are areas with around on average 7,200 population.
- Seven–day rates are expressed per 100,000 population and are calculated by dividing the seven day count by the area population and multiplying by 100,000. It is the typical way in which data is presented so that like can be compared with like.
- The seven-day rolling average smooths out the daily fluctuations to help identify overall trends.
- When looking at the data, the rate per 100,000 populations gives you the best comparisons.
- UckfieldNews.com maintains its own datasets relating to Covid-19 in Wealden and Uckfield. They are built using published sources, generally the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the UK Government.
- Cases (infections) are of people with at least one positive Covid-19 test result (either lab-reported or lateral flow device)
- Published ONS data for the five days before any publication is regarded as incomplete by the ONS and is subject to revision, as necessary. As a result, this means some of the stats in this report may not tally exactly with figures in last week’s report.
- We generally report Wealden case numbers on a Monday and deaths on a Wednesday