Covid-19: The picture we all want to see

New cases of Covid-19 are still dropping in the Uckfield and Wealden areas.

And the picture below, where white and pale colours indicate fewer infections and darker shades higher rates, is a boost for residents before they hear later today (February 22) from Prime Minster Boris Johnson on how the third lockdown will be unwound.

The graphic below shows the position based on the seven-day rolling rate, with data to February 16.

 

The comparison with the map (below) from January 19 is stark – a time the Coronavirus was on the march.

The maps are from the Government Coronavirus data website.

Seven-day rolling rate of new cases in the Uckfield area

Uckfield Town and North:  11 cases in the seven days to February 16 – the figure was four a week ago.

The seven-day rolling rate is 127.3 per 100,000 population –  46.3 per 100,000 population a week ago.

This is the only community covered by this website where the number of cases has in increased in the last week. There is no indication in the data as to why this is the case, although the numbers are low.

Uckfield South (New Town and Ridgewood): Fewer than three in the seven days to February 16. When cases are below three no data is published by the government to protect individuals’ identities. It was a similar position seven days ago.

  • The boundary between the two Uckfield areas is roughly the River Uck.

Buxted, Framfield and Rotherfield (includes High Hurstwood, Blackboys, Hadlow Down and Waldron): Three cases in the seven days to February 16 – the figure was eight a week ago.

The seven-day rolling rate is 35.7 per 100,000 people – 95.2 per 100,000 a week ago.

Five Ash Down, Horsted and Chiddingly (includes Maresfield, Piltdown, Isfield, Halland, East Hoathly and Laughton): Six cases in the seven days to February 16 – the figure was nine a week ago.

The seven-day rolling rate is 85.5 per 100,000 people – 128.3 per 100,000 a week ago.

Chelwood and Nutley (includes Fletching): Fewer than three in the seven days to February 16 – the figure was ten a week ago. When cases are below three no data is published by the government to protect individuals’ identities. It was a similar position seven days ago.

What’s the latest position in Wealden?

There have been 80 cases of the Coronavirus in Wealden in the last seven days – down 34 (29.8%) from when we reported a week ago. These figures are up to 4pm yesterday (February 21).

Here are the daily totals for Wealden:

  • February 15: 10
  • February 16: 15
  • February 17: 9
  • February 18 11
  • February 19: 17
  • February 20: 11
  • February 21: 7

The peak period was in mid January with more than 2,000 infections in a fortnight. Numbers have been dropping from January 24 onwards.

There was one day in the second week of January when the number of infections recorded in Wealden was 204.

Rates of infection

The current rate of infection per 100,000 population in Wealden is 57.0 per 100,000 people, which is below the England rate of 128.5 per 100,000 people.

Recent cases in Wealden are the highest in working age adults, says East Sussex public health, although there are quite a few cases in women aged 90+.

New Covid cases in surrounding council areas in the last seven days:

  • Brighton and Hove: 160 with a rate of 60.8 per 100,000 population
  • Eastbourne borough: 43 with a rate of 72.3 per 100,000 population
  • Hastings borough: 55 with a rate of 71.2 per 100,000 population
  • Lewes district: 72 with a rate of 70.7 per 100,000 population
  • Mid Sussex: 128 with a rate of 63.6 per 100,000 population
  • Rother:  36 with a rate of 29.1 per 100,000 population
  • Tunbridge Wells district: 59 with a rate of 53.9 per 100,000 population

The rate per 100,000 people is the key figure. Figures as at 4pm yesterday.

East Sussex

The improving picture is mirrored across East Sssuex.

The county’s director of public health, Darrell Gale, reported on Thursday (February 18):

The seven-day rate per 100,000 for East Sussex (82) is now firmly below the rate for England (143) and the South East (102)

The East Sussex figure masks the discrepancy, he said, between the districts and borough areas with Rother (44) at the lowest and Hastings (120) the highest.

Pressures on hospitals continue to ease.

Notes:

  • The community groupings for the Uckfield area are those used for national statistical purposes and are areas with around on average 7,200 population.
  • Seven–day rates are expressed per 100,000 population and are calculated by dividing the seven day count by the area population and multiplying by 100,000. It is the typical way in which data is presented so that like can be compared with like.
  • The seven-day rolling average smooths out the daily fluctuations to help identify overall trends.
  • When looking at the data, the rate per 100,000 populations gives you the best comparisons.
  • UckfieldNews.com maintains its own datasets relating to Covid-19 in Wealden and Uckfield. They are built using published sources, generally the Office for National Statistics (ONS) and the UK Government.
  • Cases (infections) are of people with at least one positive Covid-19 test result (either lab-reported or lateral flow device)
  • Published ONS data for the five days before any publication is regarded as incomplete by the ONS and is subject to revision, as necessary. As a result, this means some of the stats in this report may not tally exactly with figures in last week’s report. 
  • We generally report Wealden case numbers on a Monday and deaths on a Wednesday

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